Portland Timbers v FC Dallas PREDICTION
MLS Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK · in 8d1X2 · Portland TimbersModel behind market recent
Market
2.25
price
44.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.41
fair price
41.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.06
model fair price
48.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 42%model 49%
Model divergence +7.1 pts
Edge vs fair -6.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Portland Timbers
49%
Draw
26%
FC Dallas
25%
market fair (devig · consensus): 42% / 25% / 34%
Expected goals (λ)
1.753 — 1.211
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Portland Timbers 49% against the market’s fair 42% — a +7.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.753–1.211 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Portland Timbers 35% · FC Dallas 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Portland Timbers play FC Dallas?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Portland Timbers v FC Dallas?
The statistical model prices Portland Timbers at 49%, the draw at 26% and FC Dallas at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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