Portland Timbers v FC Dallas
MLS1X2 · Portland TimbersModel behind market recent
Market
2.25
price
44.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.41
fair price
41.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.06
model fair price
48.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 42%model 49%
Model divergence +7.1 pts
Edge vs fair -6.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Portland Timbers
49%
Draw
26%
FC Dallas
25%
market fair (devig · consensus): 42% / 25% / 34%
Expected goals (λ)
1.753 — 1.211
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Portland Timbers 49% against the market’s fair 42% — a +7.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.753–1.211 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Portland Timbers 35% · FC Dallas 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 48.6% | 2.41 | 2.25 | -6.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 4.07 | 3.80 | -6.5% |
| FC Dallas | 25.0% | 2.95 | 2.75 | -6.8% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Portland Timbers | Draw | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 2.18 | 3.65 | 2.65 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Paddy Power | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.70 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Bet Victor | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Coral | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
| Smarkets | 2.08 | 3.40 | 2.54 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.75 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Portland Timbers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Portland TimbersFair line (devig) — Portland Timbers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Portland Timbers
LLDWLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Inter Miami | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v CF Montreal | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Sporting Kansas City | 6-0 | W |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Real Salt Lake | 0-2 | L |
FC Dallas
WWLWWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.25 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Colorado Rapids | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Real Salt Lake | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v New York Red Bulls | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | Portland Timbers v FC Dallas | 2-2 | USA MLS |
| 2025-08-10 | FC Dallas v Portland Timbers | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-10-07 | Portland Timbers v FC Dallas | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-05 | FC Dallas v Portland Timbers | 3-2 | USA MLS |
| 2023-06-12 | Portland Timbers v FC Dallas | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-04-02 | FC Dallas v Portland Timbers | 1-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Portland Timbers play FC Dallas?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Portland Timbers v FC Dallas?
The statistical model prices Portland Timbers at 49%, the draw at 26% and FC Dallas at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Portland Timbers v FC Dallas?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.41 / 4.07 / 2.95 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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