San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC PREDICTION
MLS Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK · in 8d1X2 · San Jose EarthquakesModel behind market recent
Market
1.44
price
69.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.53
fair price
65.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.08
model fair price
48.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 65%model 48%
Model divergence -17.4 pts
Edge vs fair -5.8%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
San Jose Earthquakes
48%
Draw
25%
Orlando City SC
27%
market fair (devig · consensus): 65% / 19% / 16%
Expected goals (λ)
1.852 — 1.341
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices San Jose Earthquakes 48% against the market’s fair 65% — a -17.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.852–1.341 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): San Jose Earthquakes 35% · Orlando City SC 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do San Jose Earthquakes play Orlando City SC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC?
The statistical model prices San Jose Earthquakes at 48%, the draw at 25% and Orlando City SC at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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