San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC
MLS1X2 · San Jose EarthquakesModel behind market recent
Market
1.44
price
69.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.53
fair price
65.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.08
model fair price
48.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 65%model 48%
Model divergence -17.4 pts
Edge vs fair -5.8%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
San Jose Earthquakes
48%
Draw
25%
Orlando City SC
27%
market fair (devig · consensus): 65% / 19% / 16%
Expected goals (λ)
1.852 — 1.341
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices San Jose Earthquakes 48% against the market’s fair 65% — a -17.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.852–1.341 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): San Jose Earthquakes 35% · Orlando City SC 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 48.0% | 1.53 | 1.44 | -5.8% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 5.32 | 5.00 | -6% |
| Orlando City SC | 26.6% | 6.37 | 6.00 | -5.8% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.75 | 5.30 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.75 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.80 |
| Smarkets | 1.38 | 4.30 | 4.90 |
| Bet Victor | 1.40 | 4.80 | 5.75 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.40 | 4.80 | 5.75 |
| Coral | 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.25 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.25 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.40 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · San Jose Earthquakes — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — San Jose EarthquakesFair line (devig) — San Jose Earthquakes
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
San Jose Earthquakes
WLLDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.33 / 1.25
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Portland Timbers | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v FC Dallas | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v Seattle Sounders | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Toronto FC | 1-1 | D |
Orlando City SC
LDWLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 2.75
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v FC Cincinnati | 2-6 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Atlanta Utd | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Philadelphia Union | 4-3 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v CF Montreal | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Inter Miami | 4-3 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2021-06-23 | Orlando City v San Jose Earthquakes | 5-0 | USA MLS |
| 2019-09-01 | San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2018-04-22 | Orlando City v San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 | USA MLS |
| 2017-05-18 | San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2016-06-19 | Orlando City v San Jose Earthquakes | 2-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do San Jose Earthquakes play Orlando City SC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC?
The statistical model prices San Jose Earthquakes at 48%, the draw at 25% and Orlando City SC at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.53 / 5.32 / 6.37 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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