Austin FC v Seattle Sounders FC PREDICTION
MLS Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 8d1X2 · Seattle Sounders FCModel behind market recent
Market
2.05
price
48.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.19
fair price
45.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.80
model fair price
35.7%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 46%model 36%
Model divergence -9.9 pts
Edge vs fair -6.5%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Austin FC
35%
Draw
30%
Seattle Sounders FC
36%
market fair (devig · consensus): 28% / 26% / 46%
Expected goals (λ)
1.286 — 1.31
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Seattle Sounders FC 36% against the market’s fair 46% — a -9.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.286–1.31 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Austin FC 22% · Seattle Sounders FC 22% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Austin FC play Seattle Sounders FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Austin FC v Seattle Sounders FC?
The statistical model prices Austin FC at 35%, the draw at 30% and Seattle Sounders FC at 36%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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