Austin FC v Seattle Sounders FC
MLS1X2 · Seattle Sounders FCModel behind market recent
Market
2.05
price
48.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.19
fair price
45.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.80
model fair price
35.7%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 46%model 36%
Model divergence -9.9 pts
Edge vs fair -6.5%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Austin FC
35%
Draw
30%
Seattle Sounders FC
36%
market fair (devig · consensus): 28% / 26% / 46%
Expected goals (λ)
1.286 — 1.31
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Seattle Sounders FC 36% against the market’s fair 46% — a -9.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.286–1.31 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Austin FC 22% · Seattle Sounders FC 22% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC | 34.6% | 3.52 | 3.30 | -6.3% |
| Draw | 29.7% | 3.85 | 3.60 | -6.4% |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 35.7% | 2.19 | 2.05 | -6.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Austin FC | Draw | Seattle Sounders FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| LeoVegas | 3.15 | 3.45 | 1.98 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Sky Bet | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Paddy Power | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Smarkets | 3.00 | 3.15 | 1.93 |
| Bet Victor | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Betano (UK) | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Coral | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Seattle Sounders FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Seattle Sounders FCFair line (devig) — Seattle Sounders FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Austin FCLLLDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | A v St. Louis City | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Sporting Kansas City | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v San Diego FC | 0-5 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | A v Minnesota United | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | H v St. Louis City | 2-0 | W |
Seattle Sounders FC
LLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v Los Angeles FC | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Los Angeles Galaxy | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v San Diego FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Sporting Kansas City | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | Austin FC v Seattle Sounders | 2-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-06-29 | Seattle Sounders v Austin FC | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-14 | Austin FC v Seattle Sounders | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-03-03 | Seattle Sounders v Austin FC | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-08-31 | Austin FC v Seattle Sounders | 1-2 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-18 | Seattle Sounders v Austin FC | 1-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Austin FC play Seattle Sounders FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Austin FC v Seattle Sounders FC?
The statistical model prices Austin FC at 35%, the draw at 30% and Seattle Sounders FC at 36%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Austin FC v Seattle Sounders FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.52 / 3.85 / 2.19 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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