Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC PREDICTION
MLS Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 8d1X2 · Sporting Kansas CityModel behind market recent
Market
3.40
price
29.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
3.64
fair price
27.5%
fair prob
Our model
1.95
model fair price
51.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 28%model 51%
Model divergence +23.9 pts
Edge vs fair -6.5%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Sporting Kansas City
51%
Draw
26%
Minnesota United FC
23%
market fair (devig · consensus): 28% / 25% / 48%
Expected goals (λ)
1.815 — 1.152
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Sporting Kansas City 51% against the market’s fair 28% — a +23.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.815–1.152 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sporting Kansas City 37% · Minnesota United FC 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Sporting Kansas City play Minnesota United FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC?
The statistical model prices Sporting Kansas City at 51%, the draw at 26% and Minnesota United FC at 23%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.