Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC
MLS1X2 · Sporting Kansas CityModel behind market recent
Market
3.40
price
29.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
3.64
fair price
27.5%
fair prob
Our model
1.95
model fair price
51.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 28%model 51%
Model divergence +23.9 pts
Edge vs fair -6.5%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Sporting Kansas City
51%
Draw
26%
Minnesota United FC
23%
market fair (devig · consensus): 28% / 25% / 48%
Expected goals (λ)
1.815 — 1.152
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Sporting Kansas City 51% against the market’s fair 28% — a +23.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.815–1.152 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sporting Kansas City 37% · Minnesota United FC 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 51.4% | 3.64 | 3.40 | -6.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 4.07 | 3.80 | -6.5% |
| Minnesota United FC | 22.7% | 2.09 | 1.95 | -6.6% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Sporting Kansas City | Draw | Minnesota United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 3.25 | 3.70 | 1.88 |
| Sky Bet | 3.10 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Paddy Power | 3.30 | 3.80 | 1.91 |
| 888sport | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Betano (UK) | 3.25 | 3.75 | 1.93 |
| Bet Victor | 3.25 | 3.75 | 1.93 |
| Coral | 3.20 | 3.70 | 1.91 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.20 | 3.70 | 1.91 |
| Smarkets | 3.10 | 3.45 | 1.81 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.20 | 3.75 | 1.95 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sporting Kansas City — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sporting Kansas CityFair line (devig) — Sporting Kansas City
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sporting Kansas City
LWWLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2.58
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New York Red Bulls | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Austin FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Los Angeles Galaxy | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Portland Timbers | 0-6 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Seattle Sounders | 1-1 | D |
Minnesota United FC
DLLDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | H v Real Salt Lake | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | A v New England Revolution | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Colorado Rapids | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Austin FC | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Columbus Crew | 3-2 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Minnesota United v Sporting Kansas City | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-03-16 | Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United | 3-3 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-22 | Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United | 0-2 | USA MLS |
| 2024-06-02 | Minnesota United v Sporting Kansas City | 3-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-04-28 | Minnesota United v Sporting Kansas City | 2-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-10-22 | Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United | 3-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Sporting Kansas City play Minnesota United FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC?
The statistical model prices Sporting Kansas City at 51%, the draw at 26% and Minnesota United FC at 23%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.64 / 4.07 / 2.09 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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