New England Revolution v Toronto FC 
PREDICTION
MLS Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK · in 8d1X2 · New England RevolutionModel behind market recent
Market
1.75
price
57.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.85
fair price
54.1%
fair prob
Our model
1.87
model fair price
53.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 54%model 53%
Model divergence -0.7 pts
Edge vs fair -5.3%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
New England Revolution
53%
Draw
25%
Toronto FC
21%
market fair (devig · consensus): 54% / 25% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.893 — 1.141
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices New England Revolution 53% against the market’s fair 54% — a -0.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.893–1.141 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): New England Revolution 39% · Toronto FC 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do New England Revolution play Toronto FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for New England Revolution v Toronto FC?
The statistical model prices New England Revolution at 53%, the draw at 25% and Toronto FC at 21%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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