New England Revolution v Toronto FC 
MLS1X2 · New England RevolutionModel behind market recent
Market
1.75
price
57.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.85
fair price
54.1%
fair prob
Our model
1.87
model fair price
53.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 54%model 53%
Model divergence -0.7 pts
Edge vs fair -5.3%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
New England Revolution
53%
Draw
25%
Toronto FC
21%
market fair (devig · consensus): 54% / 25% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.893 — 1.141
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices New England Revolution 53% against the market’s fair 54% — a -0.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.893–1.141 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): New England Revolution 39% · Toronto FC 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution | 53.4% | 1.85 | 1.75 | -5.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 4.02 | 3.80 | -5.4% |
| Toronto FC | 21.4% | 4.76 | 4.50 | -5.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | New England Revolution | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.63 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Bet Victor | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Coral | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · New England Revolution — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — New England RevolutionFair line (devig) — New England Revolution
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
New England Revolution
LWLWWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.75 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Charlotte | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Minnesota United | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Nashville SC | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Philadelphia Union | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Charlotte | 1-0 | W |
Toronto FCLLLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Chicago Fire | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Charlotte | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Inter Miami | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-25 | H v Atlanta Utd | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | New England Revolution v Toronto FC | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-05-03 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 0-2 | USA MLS |
| 2024-04-21 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-03-03 | New England Revolution v Toronto FC | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-06-25 | New England Revolution v Toronto FC | 2-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-07 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 0-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do New England Revolution play Toronto FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for New England Revolution v Toronto FC?
The statistical model prices New England Revolution at 53%, the draw at 25% and Toronto FC at 21%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for New England Revolution v Toronto FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.85 / 4.02 / 4.76 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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