Nashville SC v CF Montreal 
PREDICTION
MLS Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 8d1X2 · Nashville SCModel behind market recent
Market
1.40
price
71.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.48
fair price
67.6%
fair prob
Our model
1.68
model fair price
59.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 68%model 60%
Model divergence -8.1 pts
Edge vs fair -5.4%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Nashville SC
60%
Draw
25%
CF Montreal
16%
market fair (devig · consensus): 68% / 19% / 14%
Expected goals (λ)
1.906 — 0.902
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Nashville SC 60% against the market’s fair 68% — a -8.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.906–0.902 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Nashville SC 43% · CF Montreal 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Nashville SC play CF Montreal?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Nashville SC v CF Montreal?
The statistical model prices Nashville SC at 60%, the draw at 25% and CF Montreal at 16%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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