Nashville SC v CF Montreal 
MLS1X2 · Nashville SCModel behind market recent
Market
1.40
price
71.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.48
fair price
67.6%
fair prob
Our model
1.68
model fair price
59.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 68%model 60%
Model divergence -8.1 pts
Edge vs fair -5.4%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Nashville SC
60%
Draw
25%
CF Montreal
16%
market fair (devig · consensus): 68% / 19% / 14%
Expected goals (λ)
1.906 — 0.902
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Nashville SC 60% against the market’s fair 68% — a -8.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.906–0.902 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Nashville SC 43% · CF Montreal 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 59.5% | 1.48 | 1.40 | -5.4% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 5.29 | 5.00 | -5.5% |
| CF Montreal | 16.0% | 7.41 | 7.00 | -5.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Nashville SC | Draw | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.38 | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.34 | 4.00 | 5.70 |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| Bet Victor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Coral | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Nashville SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Nashville SCFair line (devig) — Nashville SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Nashville SC
WWWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.25 / 0.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New York City | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-18 | H v Los Angeles FC | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v New England Revolution | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v DC United | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Philadelphia Union | 0-0 | D |
CF MontrealWDLDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.75 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Vancouver FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v DC United | 4-4 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Chicago Fire | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Portland Timbers | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Orlando City | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | CF Montreal v Nashville SC | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-03-23 | Nashville SC v CF Montreal | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-05-26 | CF Montreal v Nashville SC | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-05-05 | Nashville SC v CF Montreal | 4-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-06-22 | CF Montreal v Nashville SC | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-03-12 | Nashville SC v CF Montreal | 2-0 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Nashville SC play CF Montreal?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Nashville SC v CF Montreal?
The statistical model prices Nashville SC at 60%, the draw at 25% and CF Montreal at 16%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Nashville SC v CF Montreal?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.48 / 5.29 / 7.41 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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