Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls PREDICTION
MLS Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK · in 8d1X2 · Philadelphia UnionModel behind market recent
Market
1.67
price
59.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.79
fair price
55.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.08
model fair price
48.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 48%
Model divergence -7.8 pts
Edge vs fair -6.8%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Philadelphia Union
48%
Draw
27%
New York Red Bulls
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 56% / 22% / 22%
Expected goals (λ)
1.681 — 1.158
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Philadelphia Union 48% against the market’s fair 56% — a -7.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.681–1.158 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Philadelphia Union 33% · New York Red Bulls 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Philadelphia Union play New York Red Bulls?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls?
The statistical model prices Philadelphia Union at 48%, the draw at 27% and New York Red Bulls at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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