Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls
MLS1X2 · Philadelphia UnionModel behind market recent
Market
1.67
price
59.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.79
fair price
55.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.08
model fair price
48.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 48%
Model divergence -7.8 pts
Edge vs fair -6.8%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Philadelphia Union
48%
Draw
27%
New York Red Bulls
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 56% / 22% / 22%
Expected goals (λ)
1.681 — 1.158
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Philadelphia Union 48% against the market’s fair 56% — a -7.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.681–1.158 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Philadelphia Union 33% · New York Red Bulls 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 48.0% | 1.79 | 1.67 | -6.8% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 4.46 | 4.20 | -5.9% |
| New York Red Bulls | 24.8% | 4.59 | 4.33 | -5.6% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.15 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Bet Victor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Smarkets | 1.58 | 3.65 | 3.90 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.61 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Coral | 1.61 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.68 / 4.19 / 4.30 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Philadelphia Union — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Philadelphia UnionFair line (devig) — Philadelphia Union
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Philadelphia Union
LDLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v Inter Miami | 4-6 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Columbus Crew | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | A v Orlando City | 3-4 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v New England Revolution | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Nashville SC | 0-0 | D |
New York Red Bulls
WDWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.83 / 2.33
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Sporting Kansas City | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v New York City | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Columbus Crew | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Chicago Fire | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v FC Dallas | 0-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-17 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-07-13 | Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-01 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 0-2 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-07 | Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-09-04 | Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls | 4-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-07 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 0-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Philadelphia Union play New York Red Bulls?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls?
The statistical model prices Philadelphia Union at 48%, the draw at 27% and New York Red Bulls at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.79 / 4.46 / 4.59 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.