EPL Predictions — Model Probabilities
Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.
Want to slice this yourself?
Open in Explorer — model probabilities preset →
This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.
0 fixtures of 16 considered
All leagues
3. Liga - GermanyAllsvenskan - SwedenAustrian Football BundesligaBelgium First DivBrazil Série ABrazil Série BBundesliga - GermanyBundesliga 2 - GermanyChampionshipCopa LibertadoresCopa SudamericanaCoppa ItaliaDenmark SuperligaDutch EredivisieEFL CupEkstraklasa - PolandEliteserien - NorwayEPLFA CupFrauen-BundesligaJ LeagueK League 1La Liga - SpainLa Liga 2 - SpainLeague 1League 2League of IrelandLiga MXLigue 1 - FranceLigue 2 - FranceMLSPremiership - ScotlandPrimeira Liga - PortugalPrimera División - ArgentinaPrimera División - ChileSaudi Pro LeagueSerie A - ItalySerie B - ItalySuper League - ChinaSuper League - GreeceSuperettan - SwedenSwiss SuperleagueTurkey Super LeagueUEFA Europa LeagueVeikkausliiga - Finland
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town
|
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Chelsea v Hull City
|
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Liverpool v Fulham
|
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest
|
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Bournemouth v Brentford
|
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Tottenham Hotspur v Everton
|
Sat 12 Sept, 17:30 | — | — |
 Sunderland v Arsenal
|
Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 | — | — |
 Coventry City v Brighton and Hove Albion
|
Sun 13 Sept, 14:00 | — | — |
 Manchester United v Manchester City
|
Sun 13 Sept, 16:30 | — | — |
 Leeds United v Newcastle United
|
Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 | — | — |
| Brentford v Chelsea
|
Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 | — | — |
| Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa
|
Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 | — | — |
| Everton v Ipswich Town
|
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal
|
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
| Newcastle United v Hull City
|
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
| Nottingham Forest v Coventry City
|
Sat 19 Sept, 17:30 | — | — |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these epl predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.