UEFA Europa League Predictions — Model Probabilities

Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.

Want to slice this yourself? Open in Explorer — model probabilities preset →

This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.

0 fixtures of 20 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Model 1X2	Most likely score
FC Ararat-Armenia v Sparta Prague	Wed 16 Sept, 17:45	—	—
Omonoia FC v Celta Vigo	Wed 16 Sept, 17:45	—	—
SK Sturm Graz v Rennes	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Sunderland v AZ Alkmaar	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Anderlecht v Lyon	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	—	—
AC Milan v Benfica	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Dinamo Zagreb	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Olympiakos Piraeus v Jagiellonia Białystok	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Bayer Leverkusen v NK Celje	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	—	—
PFC Levski Sofia v Salzburg	Thu 17 Sept, 17:45	—	—
OFI Crete v TSG Hoffenheim	Thu 17 Sept, 17:45	—	—
Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg	Thu 17 Sept, 17:45	—	—
Lillestrom v Torreense	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Besiktas JK v Marseille	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Real Sociedad v Bournemouth	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Juventus v NEC Nijmegen	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Viktoria Plzeň v Union Saint-Gilloise	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Crystal Palace v Lech Poznań	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Celtic v Ferencváros TC	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	—	—
Plzen v Union St. Gilloise	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	—	—

Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The track record grades every published call in the open.

Frequently asked questions

How are these uefa europa league predictions made?

A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.

Are these betting tips?

No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.

How do I know the model is any good?

The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.