A-League Predictions — Model Probabilities
Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.
Want to slice this yourself?
Open in Explorer — model probabilities preset →
This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.
0 fixtures of 6 considered
All leagues
3. Liga - GermanyA-LeagueAllsvenskan - SwedenAustrian Football BundesligaBelgium First DivBrazil Série ABrazil Série BBundesliga - GermanyBundesliga 2 - GermanyChampionshipDenmark SuperligaDFB-PokalDutch EredivisieEFL CupEkstraklasaEliteserien - NorwayEPLJ LeagueLa Liga - SpainLa Liga 2 - SpainLeague 1League 2League of IrelandLiga MXLigue 1 - FranceLigue 2 - FranceMLSPremiership - ScotlandPrimeira Liga - PortugalPrimera División - ArgentinaPrimera División - ChileSaudi Pro LeagueSerie A - ItalySerie B - ItalySuper League - GreeceSuperettan - SwedenSwiss SuperleagueTurkey Super LeagueUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Europa LeagueVeikkausliiga - Finland
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time.
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
 Brisbane Roar v Auckland FC
|
Fri 30 Oct, 09:00 | — | — |
 Newcastle Jets FC v Wellington Phoenix FC
|
Sat 31 Oct, 04:00 | — | — |
 Melbourne City v Sydney FC
|
Sat 31 Oct, 06:00 | — | — |
 Macarthur FC v Western Sydney Wanderers
|
Sat 31 Oct, 08:40 | — | — |
 Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners
|
Sun 1 Nov, 04:00 | — | — |
 Perth Glory v Adelaide United
|
Sun 1 Nov, 08:00 | — | — |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these a-league predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 16 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.