UEFA Champions League Predictions — Model Probabilities
Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.
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This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.
0 fixtures of 10 considered
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Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 5 November at 08:07 UK time.
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bodø/Glimt v LASK
|
Tue 24 Nov, 17:45 | — | — |
 Galatasaray v Aston Villa
|
Tue 24 Nov, 17:45 | — | — |
 Real Madrid v PSV Eindhoven
|
Tue 24 Nov, 20:00 | — | — |
 ŠK Slovan Bratislava v Real Betis
|
Tue 24 Nov, 20:00 | — | — |
 Feyenoord v Porto
|
Tue 24 Nov, 20:00 | — | — |
 RB Leipzig v RC Lens
|
Tue 24 Nov, 20:00 | — | — |
 Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund
|
Tue 24 Nov, 20:00 | — | — |
 Manchester City v Napoli
|
Tue 24 Nov, 20:00 | — | — |
 Como v AEK Athens
|
Tue 24 Nov, 20:00 | — | — |
 Slavia Praha v Villarreal
|
Wed 25 Nov, 17:45 | — | — |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these uefa champions league predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 5 November at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 17 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.