UEFA Champions League Predictions — Model Probabilities
Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.
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This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.
0 fixtures of 18 considered
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Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 19 September at 08:06 UK time.
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
 RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon
|
Tue 13 Oct, 17:45 | — | — |
 Sabah FK v Slavia Praha
|
Tue 13 Oct, 17:45 | — | — |
 Villarreal v Napoli
|
Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 Viking FK v Bayern Munich
|
Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 Arsenal v Lille
|
Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 Atlético Madrid v Manchester United
|
Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 Inter Milan v Club Brugge
|
Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven
|
Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 Galatasaray v Barcelona
|
Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 LASK v Liverpool
|
Wed 14 Oct, 17:45 | — | — |
 Feyenoord v Como
|
Wed 14 Oct, 17:45 | — | — |
 Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens
|
Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 Aston Villa v Fenerbahce
|
Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 Real Betis v Porto
|
Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain
|
Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 Bodø/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund
|
Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 AS Roma v Real Madrid
|
Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
 ŠK Slovan Bratislava v VfB Stuttgart
|
Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | — | — |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these uefa champions league predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 19 September at 08:06 UK time. · engine slate assembled 19 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.