Copa del Rey Predictions — Model Probabilities

Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.

Want to slice this yourself? Open in Explorer — model probabilities preset →

This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.

0 fixtures of 39 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 28 October at 08:20 UK time.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Model 1X2	Most likely score
Anaitasuna v Alavés	Wed 28 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Coruxo FC v Zamora CF	Wed 28 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Utebo FC v Sabadell FC	Wed 28 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Peña Sport v SD Huesca	Wed 28 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Tarancón v Levante	Wed 28 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Club Portugalete v Real Unión	Wed 28 Oct, 18:00	—	—
UD Poblense v AD Ceuta FC	Wed 28 Oct, 18:00	—	—
CD Pamplona v SD Eibar	Wed 28 Oct, 18:00	—	—
CD Covadonga v Valladolid	Wed 28 Oct, 19:00	—	—
SD Amorebieta v UD Logroñés	Wed 28 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Mijas Las Lagunas v Real Jaen	Wed 28 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Alcoyano v Mallorca	Wed 28 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Badajoz v Tenerife	Wed 28 Oct, 19:00	—	—
CF Trival Valderas v Leganés	Wed 28 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Numancia v Oviedo	Wed 28 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Calvo Sotelo v Albacete	Wed 28 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Reus FC Reddis v Barakaldo	Wed 28 Oct, 19:30	—	—
CD Minera v FC Cartagena	Wed 28 Oct, 19:30	—	—
RS Gimnástica v UD Ourense	Wed 28 Oct, 19:30	—	—
Cieza v Granada CF	Wed 28 Oct, 19:30	—	—
Gimnástica Torrelavega v UD Ourense	Wed 28 Oct, 19:30	—	—
Salamanca CF UDS v Celta Vigo	Wed 28 Oct, 20:00	—	—
CDA Navalcarnero v Real Betis	Wed 28 Oct, 20:00	—	—
Xerez CD v Cádiz CF	Wed 28 Oct, 20:00	—	—
Tavernes v Valencia	Wed 28 Oct, 20:00	—	—
Atletico Calatayud v Osasuna	Thu 29 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Atlético Baleares v Eldense	Thu 29 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Lebrijana v Getafe	Thu 29 Oct, 18:00	—	—
SS Reyes v CD Coria	Thu 29 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Antequera v Águilas	Thu 29 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Conquense v Castellón	Thu 29 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Guijuelo v Sporting Gijon	Thu 29 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Laredo v Burgos	Thu 29 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Real Ávila v Unionistas de Salamanca	Thu 29 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Varea v FC Andorra	Thu 29 Oct, 19:00	—	—
Auriense v Deportivo La Coruna	Thu 29 Oct, 20:00	—	—
Ribadesella CF v Racing Santander	Thu 29 Oct, 20:00	—	—
Hortaleza v Sevilla	Thu 29 Oct, 20:00	—	—
Prat v Athletic Club	Thu 29 Oct, 20:00	—	—

Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The track record grades every published call in the open.

Frequently asked questions

How are these copa del rey predictions made?

A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.

Are these betting tips?

No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.

How do I know the model is any good?

The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 28 October at 08:20 UK time. · engine slate assembled 2 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.