Guadalajara v Toluca PREDICTION
LM Sun 19 Jul, 02:07 UK · in 3d
1X2 · GuadalajaraModel behind market recent
Market
2.25
price
44.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.34
fair price
42.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 43%model 45%
Model divergence +2.7 pts
Edge vs fair -3.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Guadalajara
45%
Draw
28%
Toluca
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 43% / 27% / 30%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Guadalajara 45% against the market’s fair 43% — a +2.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Guadalajara 30% · Toluca 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Guadalajara play Toluca?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 02:07 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Guadalajara v Toluca?
The statistical model prices Guadalajara at 45%, the draw at 28% and Toluca at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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