SHARPFOOTYData · Models · Insight Toluca
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Toluca

Liga MXNemesio Diez Stadium
Next match América v Toluca Sun 1 Nov, 03:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Toluca — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming14 Results held
Model Strength
Not enough data
the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
94.3%
Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
2nd
of 18 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
14
Held

Next fixtures

1 priced
Sun 1 Nov03:00 América crest América A — 2.35Grosvenor —

Form

last 6
DDDLDL 4 pts from 6
A Leon 1–1 -0.1
H Club Tijuana 2–2 -1.0
H Atletico San Luis 1–1 -1.1
A Tigres UANL 2–3 -1.4
A Cruz Azul 3–3 -0.1
H Santos Laguna 2–3 -1.9
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected
Points taken (14 matches) Model expected (13 priced) Ahead Behind
Points taken against model expected points over 14 matches 0 12 23
+2.4 points against the model's expectation over the 13 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition
Strengths
Goals scored 2.07 #3 of 18
Clean sheets 4 #5 of 18
Goals conceded 1.36 #6 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank
Goals scored 2.07 #3 of 18
Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank
Goals conceded 1.36 #6 of 18
Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets 4 #5 of 18

Best model edges

on this club
No priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed
44%
Scored before half time
of 18 goals
11%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 18 goals
11%
From the penalty spot
of 18 goals
28%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 18 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 14 stored fixtures (36 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club
Not enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
LM Liga MX 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table
No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Home ground: Nemesio Diez Stadium gazetteer
Recorded form DDDLLL last 12: 2 scored / 1.67 conceded per game · Over 2.5 58% · BTTS 75% · clean sheets 25% (40 results held)
A Leon 1-1 D · H Club Tijuana 2-2 D · H Atletico San Luis 1-1 D · A Tigres UANL 2-3 L · A Tigres 2-3 L

Upcoming fixtures

  1. Sun 1 Nov03:00in 5d
    América crestAmérica Toluca crestToluca
    LM
    Apertura - 15
    not modelled
    model building
    —

Transfers (last 4 recorded)

PlayerClubTypeDate
IN Diego Alberto Gama García from Atletico Madrid 2015-06-24
OUT Diego Alberto Gama García to Atletico Madrid Loan 2014-08-12
IN Diego Alberto Gama García from Atletico Madrid 2014-01-01
OUT P. Da Silva to Sunderland € Free 2009-07-22
Team data: fresh · collected 24 h ago

Explore

Liga MX Next: América v Toluca Search Toluca matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Toluca play next?
Toluca's next fixture in the snapshot is América v Toluca on Sun 1 Nov, 03:00 UK time (Liga MX).