Guadalajara v Toluca
1X2 · GuadalajaraModel behind market recent
Market
2.25
price
44.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.34
fair price
42.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 43%model 45%
Model divergence +2.7 pts
Edge vs fair -3.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Guadalajara
45%
Draw
28%
Toluca
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 43% / 27% / 30%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Guadalajara 45% against the market’s fair 43% — a +2.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Guadalajara 30% · Toluca 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara | 45.4% | 2.34 | 2.25 | -3.9% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.69 | 3.60 | -2.4% |
| Toluca | 26.4% | 3.32 | 3.15 | -5.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.17 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Guadalajara | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| Smarkets | 2.16 | 3.10 | 2.98 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Bet Victor | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.18 | 3.15 | 3.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.23 / 3.51 / 3.16 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Guadalajara — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — GuadalajaraFair line (devig) — Guadalajara
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Guadalajara
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Toluca
LLWLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | A v Pachuca | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-04 | H v Pachuca | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-26 | H v Club Leon | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | A v Mazatlan FC | 3-4 | L |
| 2026-04-19 | A v Club America | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Guadalajara play Toluca?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 02:07 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Guadalajara v Toluca?
The statistical model prices Guadalajara at 45%, the draw at 28% and Toluca at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Guadalajara v Toluca?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.34 / 3.69 / 3.32 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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