Model divergence +20 ptsEdge vs fair -6%12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Querétaro
45%
Draw
28%
América
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 25% / 27% / 48%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Querétaro 45% against the market’s fair 25% — a +20 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Querétaro 31% · América 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a
decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone.
We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 04:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Querétaro v América?
The statistical model prices Querétaro at 45%, the draw at 28% and América at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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