Querétaro v América
1X2 · QuerétaroModel behind market recent
Market
3.70
price
27.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.94
fair price
25.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 25%model 45%
Model divergence +20 pts
Edge vs fair -6%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Querétaro
45%
Draw
28%
América
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 25% / 27% / 48%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Querétaro 45% against the market’s fair 25% — a +20 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Querétaro 31% · América 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Querétaro | 45.4% | 3.94 | 3.70 | -6% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.73 | 3.60 | -3.5% |
| América | 26.4% | 2.09 | 2.05 | -2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.92 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Querétaro | Draw | América |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.45 | 1.98 |
| Paddy Power | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.91 |
| LeoVegas | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.93 |
| 888sport | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.91 |
| Sky Bet | 3.25 | 3.25 | 1.85 |
| Smarkets | 3.65 | 3.40 | 1.97 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Bet Victor | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano (UK) | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.98 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.75 / 3.55 / 1.99 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Querétaro — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — QuerétaroFair line (devig) — Querétaro
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Querétaro
WDDWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.33
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | A v Puebla | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Cruz Azul | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-18 | A v Mazatlan FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | H v Necaxa | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-04-08 | H v Juarez | 1-1 | D |
América
LWLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 2.25
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-06 | A v Goiás EC | 0-1 | L |
| 2023-12-03 | H v EC Bahia | 3-2 | W |
| 2023-11-30 | A v SE Palmeiras | 0-4 | L |
| 2023-11-26 | H v CR Flamengo | 0-3 | L |
| 2023-11-12 | A v CR Vasco da Gama | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Querétaro play América?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 04:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Querétaro v América?
The statistical model prices Querétaro at 45%, the draw at 28% and América at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Querétaro v América?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.94 / 3.73 / 2.09 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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