Guadalajara v FC Juárez PREDICTION
LM Sun 26 Jul, 00:07 UK · in 11d
1X2 · GuadalajaraModel behind market recent
Market
1.60
price
62.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.76
fair price
56.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 57%model 45%
Model divergence -11.3 pts
Edge vs fair -9.3%
4 books priced
Model · 1X2
Guadalajara
45%
Draw
28%
FC Juárez
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 57% / 23% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Guadalajara 45% against the market’s fair 57% — a -11.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Guadalajara 31% · FC Juárez 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Guadalajara play FC Juárez?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 00:07 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Guadalajara v FC Juárez?
The statistical model prices Guadalajara at 45%, the draw at 28% and FC Juárez at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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