Guadalajara v FC Juárez
1X2 · GuadalajaraModel behind market recent
Market
1.60
price
62.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.76
fair price
56.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 57%model 45%
Model divergence -11.3 pts
Edge vs fair -9.3%
4 books priced
Model · 1X2
Guadalajara
45%
Draw
28%
FC Juárez
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 57% / 23% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Guadalajara 45% against the market’s fair 57% — a -11.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Guadalajara 31% · FC Juárez 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara | 45.4% | 1.76 | 1.60 | -9.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 4.41 | 4.00 | -9.2% |
| FC Juárez | 26.4% | 4.85 | 4.40 | -9.4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Guadalajara | Draw | FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.60 | 3.95 | 4.30 |
| Sky Bet | 1.57 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Guadalajara — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — GuadalajaraFair line (devig) — Guadalajara
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Guadalajara
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Juárez
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Guadalajara play FC Juárez?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 00:07 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Guadalajara v FC Juárez?
The statistical model prices Guadalajara at 45%, the draw at 28% and FC Juárez at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Guadalajara v FC Juárez?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.76 / 4.41 / 4.85 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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