Model divergence -8.9 ptsEdge vs fair -7.4%9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Cruz Azul
60%
Draw
25%
Puebla
15%
market fair (devig · consensus): 69% / 19% / 12%
Expected goals (λ)
1.861 — 0.831
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Cruz Azul 60% against the market’s fair 69% — a -8.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.861–0.831 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Cruz Azul 42% · Puebla 8% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a
decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone.
We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Kick-off is Wed 22 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Cruz Azul v Puebla?
The statistical model prices Cruz Azul at 60%, the draw at 25% and Puebla at 15%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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