Cruz Azul v Puebla
1X2 · Cruz AzulModel behind market recent
Market
1.34
price
74.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.45
fair price
69.1%
fair prob
Our model
1.66
model fair price
60.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 69%model 60%
Model divergence -8.9 pts
Edge vs fair -7.4%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Cruz Azul
60%
Draw
25%
Puebla
15%
market fair (devig · consensus): 69% / 19% / 12%
Expected goals (λ)
1.861 — 0.831
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Cruz Azul 60% against the market’s fair 69% — a -8.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.861–0.831 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Cruz Azul 42% · Puebla 8% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 60.2% | 1.45 | 1.34 | -7.4% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 5.18 | 4.80 | -7.4% |
| Puebla | 14.9% | 8.62 | 8.00 | -7.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.55 · Under: 2.30 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Cruz Azul | Draw | Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.33 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33 | 4.33 | 6.25 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Smarkets | 1.29 | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.32 | 4.75 | 8.00 |
| Casumo | 1.34 | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.34 | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.30 | 4.70 | 8.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Cruz Azul — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Cruz AzulFair line (devig) — Cruz Azul
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Cruz Azul
WDWDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v UNAM Pumas | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-22 | H v UNAM Pumas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Guadalajara Chivas | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Guadalajara Chivas | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Atlas | 1-0 | W |
Puebla
LLLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | H v Queretaro | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | A v Monterrey | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-19 | A v Guadalajara Chivas | 0-5 | L |
| 2026-04-11 | H v Club Leon | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | H v Juarez | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Cruz Azul v Puebla | 1-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-11-01 | Puebla v Cruz Azul | 0-3 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-01-25 | Cruz Azul v Puebla | 1-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-10-19 | Puebla v Cruz Azul | 1-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-04-13 | Puebla v Cruz Azul | 0-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-11-13 | Cruz Azul v Puebla | 1-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Cruz Azul play Puebla?
Kick-off is Wed 22 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Cruz Azul v Puebla?
The statistical model prices Cruz Azul at 60%, the draw at 25% and Puebla at 15%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Cruz Azul v Puebla?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.45 / 5.18 / 8.62 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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