Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors PREDICTION
PDA Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK · in 9d1X2 · Sarmiento de JuninModel behind market recent
Market
4.20
price
23.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
4.61
fair price
21.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 22%model 43%
Model divergence +21.6 pts
Edge vs fair -8.9%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
Sarmiento de Junin
43%
Draw
32%
Argentinos Juniors
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 22% / 32% / 46%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Sarmiento de Junin 43% against the market’s fair 22% — a +21.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sarmiento de Junin 26% · Argentinos Juniors 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Sarmiento de Junin
Argentinos Juniors
Primera División - Argentina
More Primera División - Argentina fixtures
Belgrano de Cordoba v Rosario CentralDefensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del PlataGimnasia Mendoza v Central CórdobaRacing Club v Gimnasia La PlataVelez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de CórdobaAtlético Huracán v Banfield
Frequently asked questions
When do Sarmiento de Junin play Argentinos Juniors?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors?
The statistical model prices Sarmiento de Junin at 43%, the draw at 32% and Argentinos Juniors at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.