Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors
PDA1X2 · Sarmiento de JuninModel behind market recent
Market
4.20
price
23.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
4.61
fair price
21.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 22%model 43%
Model divergence +21.6 pts
Edge vs fair -8.9%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
Sarmiento de Junin
43%
Draw
32%
Argentinos Juniors
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 22% / 32% / 46%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Sarmiento de Junin 43% against the market’s fair 22% — a +21.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sarmiento de Junin 26% · Argentinos Juniors 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de Junin | 43.3% | 4.61 | 4.20 | -8.9% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.12 | 3.00 | -3.7% |
| Argentinos Juniors | 25.2% | 2.16 | 2.05 | -5.3% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Sarmiento de Junin | Draw | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 3.60 | 2.75 | 1.95 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 4.10 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Paddy Power | 4.00 | 2.88 | 1.95 |
| BoyleSports | 4.00 | 2.88 | 2.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 4.20 | 2.90 | 2.05 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.00 | 2.88 | 2.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.00 | 2.88 | 2.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.00 | 2.88 | 2.05 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 4.38 / 2.97 / 2.06 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sarmiento de Junin — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sarmiento de JuninFair line (devig) — Sarmiento de Junin
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sarmiento de Junin
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Argentinos Juniors
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Sarmiento de Junin
Argentinos Juniors
Primera División - Argentina
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Frequently asked questions
When do Sarmiento de Junin play Argentinos Juniors?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors?
The statistical model prices Sarmiento de Junin at 43%, the draw at 32% and Argentinos Juniors at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 4.61 / 3.12 / 2.16 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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