Gimnasia Mendoza v Central Córdoba
PDA1X2 · Gimnasia MendozaMarket discrepancy recent
Market
1.87
price
53.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.86
fair price
53.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.79
model fair price
35.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 54%model 36%
Model divergence -18 pts
Edge vs fair +0.8%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Gimnasia Mendoza
36%
Draw
32%
Central Córdoba
32%
market fair (devig · sharp): 54% / 28% / 18%
Expected goals (λ)
1.181 — 1.104
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Gimnasia Mendoza 36% against the market’s fair 54% — a -18 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.181–1.104 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Gimnasia Mendoza 21% · Central Córdoba 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 35.9% | 1.86 | 1.87 | +0.8% |
| Draw | 31.9% | 3.53 | 3.20 | -9.4% |
| Central Córdoba | 32.1% | 5.62 | 5.00 | -11% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Gimnasia Mendoza | Draw | Central Córdoba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.73 | 2.90 | 4.33 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.80 | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.75 | 3.00 | 4.75 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87 | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.83 | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.83 | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.73 | 2.88 | 4.20 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.80 | 3.10 | 4.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.76 / 3.35 / 5.33 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Gimnasia Mendoza — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Gimnasia MendozaFair line (devig) — Gimnasia Mendoza
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Gimnasia Mendoza
WLWDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | H v Defensa y Justicia | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-26 | A v Ind. Rivadavia | 1-5 | L |
| 2026-04-21 | H v Lanus | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Platense | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-03 | H v Velez Sarsfield | 3-2 | W |
Central Córdoba
LLDWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Atletico Atlas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Boca Juniors | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-24 | A v Lanus | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Platense | 4-3 | W |
| 2026-04-14 | A v Velez Sarsfield | 0-1 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Central Cordoba v Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-1 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Gimnasia Mendoza
Central Córdoba
Primera División - Argentina
More Primera División - Argentina fixtures
Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos JuniorsBelgrano de Cordoba v Rosario CentralDefensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del PlataRacing Club v Gimnasia La PlataVelez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de CórdobaAtlético Huracán v Banfield
Frequently asked questions
When do Gimnasia Mendoza play Central Córdoba?
Kick-off is Fri 24 Jul, 20:45 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Gimnasia Mendoza v Central Córdoba?
The statistical model prices Gimnasia Mendoza at 36%, the draw at 32% and Central Córdoba at 32%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Gimnasia Mendoza v Central Córdoba?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.86 / 3.53 / 5.62 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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