Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata
PDA1X2 · Defensa y JusticiaModel behind market recent
Market
1.91
price
52.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.01
fair price
49.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 50%model 43%
Model divergence -6.4 pts
Edge vs fair -5.1%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Defensa y Justicia
43%
Draw
32%
Aldosivi Mar del Plata
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 50% / 30% / 20%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Defensa y Justicia 43% against the market’s fair 50% — a -6.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 11.5°C · rain 0 mm · wind 13.4 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Defensa y Justicia 26% · Aldosivi Mar del Plata 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa y Justicia | 43.3% | 2.01 | 1.91 | -5.1% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.31 | 3.20 | -3.4% |
| Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 25.2% | 4.98 | 4.75 | -4.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Aldosivi Mar del Plata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.75 | 2.90 | 4.20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80 | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80 | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.91 | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.76 | 3.10 | 4.75 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.76 | 3.10 | 4.75 |
| Smarkets | 1.74 | 2.90 | 4.10 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.83 | 3.10 | 4.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.91 / 3.15 / 4.72 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Defensa y Justicia — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Defensa y JusticiaFair line (devig) — Defensa y Justicia
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Defensa y JusticiaLLLLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | A v Gimnasia Mendoza | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-24 | H v Boca Juniors | 0-4 | L |
| 2026-04-18 | A v Independiente | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-13 | H v Talleres Cordoba | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-07 | A v Instituto | 0-2 | L |
Aldosivi Mar del Plata
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Defensa y Justicia
Aldosivi Mar del Plata
Primera División - Argentina
More Primera División - Argentina fixtures
Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos JuniorsBelgrano de Cordoba v Rosario CentralGimnasia Mendoza v Central CórdobaRacing Club v Gimnasia La PlataVelez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de CórdobaAtlético Huracán v Banfield
Frequently asked questions
When do Defensa y Justicia play Aldosivi Mar del Plata?
Kick-off is Fri 24 Jul, 01:45 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata?
The statistical model prices Defensa y Justicia at 43%, the draw at 32% and Aldosivi Mar del Plata at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.01 / 3.31 / 4.98 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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