Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata PREDICTION
PDA Fri 24 Jul, 01:45 UK · in 9d1X2 · Defensa y JusticiaModel behind market recent
Market
1.91
price
52.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.01
fair price
49.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 50%model 43%
Model divergence -6.4 pts
Edge vs fair -5.1%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Defensa y Justicia
43%
Draw
32%
Aldosivi Mar del Plata
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 50% / 30% / 20%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Defensa y Justicia 43% against the market’s fair 50% — a -6.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 9.3°C · rain 0 mm · wind 6.5 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Defensa y Justicia 26% · Aldosivi Mar del Plata 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Defensa y Justicia
Aldosivi Mar del Plata
Primera División - Argentina
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Frequently asked questions
When do Defensa y Justicia play Aldosivi Mar del Plata?
Kick-off is Fri 24 Jul, 01:45 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata?
The statistical model prices Defensa y Justicia at 43%, the draw at 32% and Aldosivi Mar del Plata at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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