Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata
PDA1X2 · Racing ClubModel behind market recent
Market
1.80
price
55.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.90
fair price
52.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 53%model 43%
Model divergence -9.2 pts
Edge vs fair -5.5%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Racing Club
43%
Draw
32%
Gimnasia La Plata
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 53% / 28% / 19%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Racing Club 43% against the market’s fair 53% — a -9.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 9.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 10.3 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Racing Club 25% · Gimnasia La Plata 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club | 43.3% | 1.90 | 1.80 | -5.5% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.52 | 3.25 | -7.7% |
| Gimnasia La Plata | 25.2% | 5.21 | 5.25 | +0.8% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Racing Club | Draw | Gimnasia La Plata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.73 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.80 | 3.25 | 4.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.75 | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.75 | 3.25 | 4.75 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.80 | 3.25 | 5.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.68 | 3.20 | 5.25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.68 | 3.20 | 5.25 |
| Smarkets | 1.68 | 2.96 | 4.40 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.81 / 3.35 / 4.96 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Racing Club — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Racing ClubFair line (devig) — Racing Club
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Racing ClubDWDDDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0.67
Over 2.5 goals: 17% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 17% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | A v Rosario Central | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Estudiantes L.P. | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Huracan | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-25 | H v Barracas Central | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-19 | A v Aldosivi | 1-1 | D |
Gimnasia La Plata
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Argentina fixtures
Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos JuniorsBelgrano de Cordoba v Rosario CentralDefensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del PlataGimnasia Mendoza v Central CórdobaVelez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de CórdobaAtlético Huracán v Banfield
Frequently asked questions
When do Racing Club play Gimnasia La Plata?
Kick-off is Fri 24 Jul, 23:00 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata?
The statistical model prices Racing Club at 43%, the draw at 32% and Gimnasia La Plata at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.90 / 3.52 / 5.21 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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