Atlético Huracán v Banfield
PDA1X2 · Atlético HuracánModel behind market recent
Market
1.91
price
52.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.00
fair price
50.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 50%model 43%
Model divergence -6.7 pts
Edge vs fair -4.5%
7 books priced
Model · 1X2
Atlético Huracán
43%
Draw
32%
Banfield
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 50% / 31% / 19%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Atlético Huracán 43% against the market’s fair 50% — a -6.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atlético Huracán 26% · Banfield 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Huracán | 43.3% | 2.00 | 1.91 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.21 | 3.00 | -6.4% |
| Banfield | 25.2% | 5.32 | 4.80 | -9.8% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Atlético Huracán | Draw | Banfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.80 | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.85 | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.85 | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87 | 2.90 | 4.75 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.91 | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.84 | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.84 | 3.00 | 4.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.90 / 3.04 / 5.05 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atlético Huracán — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atlético HuracánFair line (devig) — Atlético Huracán
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atlético Huracán
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Banfield
WDDLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.25
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | A v Barracas Central | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-27 | A v Atl. Tucuman | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Ind. Rivadavia | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-13 | A v Lanus | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-06 | A v Argentinos Jrs | 2-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Argentina fixtures
Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos JuniorsBelgrano de Cordoba v Rosario CentralDefensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del PlataGimnasia Mendoza v Central CórdobaRacing Club v Gimnasia La PlataVelez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba
Frequently asked questions
When do Atlético Huracán play Banfield?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 01:15 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Atlético Huracán v Banfield?
The statistical model prices Atlético Huracán at 43%, the draw at 32% and Banfield at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Atlético Huracán v Banfield?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.00 / 3.21 / 5.32 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.