Belgrano de Cordoba v Rosario Central
PDA1X2 · Belgrano de CordobaModel behind market recent
Market
2.45
price
40.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.65
fair price
37.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 38%model 43%
Model divergence +5.5 pts
Edge vs fair -7.4%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Belgrano de Cordoba
43%
Draw
32%
Rosario Central
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 38% / 34% / 28%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Belgrano de Cordoba 43% against the market’s fair 38% — a +5.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Belgrano de Cordoba 26% · Rosario Central 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgrano de Cordoba | 43.3% | 2.65 | 2.45 | -7.4% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 2.94 | 2.90 | -1.4% |
| Rosario Central | 25.2% | 3.55 | 3.10 | -12.6% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Belgrano de Cordoba | Draw | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.80 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.45 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Paddy Power | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| BoyleSports | 2.38 | 2.75 | 3.10 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.45 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.32 | 2.85 | 3.10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.32 | 2.85 | 3.10 |
| Smarkets | 2.30 | 2.56 | 2.98 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.10 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.52 / 2.80 / 3.38 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Belgrano de Cordoba — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Belgrano de CordobaFair line (devig) — Belgrano de Cordoba
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Belgrano de Cordoba
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Rosario Central
LDWDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | A v River Plate | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-13 | H v Racing Club | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Independiente | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Tigre | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-24 | A v Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Belgrano de Cordoba
Rosario Central
Primera División - Argentina
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Frequently asked questions
When do Belgrano de Cordoba play Rosario Central?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Belgrano de Cordoba v Rosario Central?
The statistical model prices Belgrano de Cordoba at 43%, the draw at 32% and Rosario Central at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Belgrano de Cordoba v Rosario Central?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.65 / 2.94 / 3.55 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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