Lanus v San Lorenzo PREDICTION
PDA Sun 26 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 11d1X2 · LanusModel behind market recent
Market
1.95
price
51.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.05
fair price
48.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.40
model fair price
41.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 42%
Model divergence -7.1 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Lanus
42%
Draw
32%
San Lorenzo
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 34% / 18%
Expected goals (λ)
1.254 — 0.946
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Lanus 42% against the market’s fair 49% — a -7.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.254–0.946 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Lanus 24% · San Lorenzo 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Lanus play San Lorenzo?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Lanus v San Lorenzo?
The statistical model prices Lanus at 42%, the draw at 32% and San Lorenzo at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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