Lanus v San Lorenzo
PDA1X2 · LanusModel behind market recent
Market
1.95
price
51.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.05
fair price
48.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.40
model fair price
41.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 42%
Model divergence -7.1 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Lanus
42%
Draw
32%
San Lorenzo
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 34% / 18%
Expected goals (λ)
1.254 — 0.946
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Lanus 42% against the market’s fair 49% — a -7.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.254–0.946 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Lanus 24% · San Lorenzo 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 41.6% | 2.05 | 1.95 | -5% |
| Draw | 32.1% | 2.96 | 2.90 | -2% |
| San Lorenzo | 26.2% | 5.71 | 5.00 | -12.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Lanus | Draw | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.85 | 2.70 | 4.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.90 | 2.80 | 4.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87 | 2.88 | 4.75 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.95 | 2.87 | 4.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.80 | 2.90 | 5.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.80 | 2.90 | 5.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.95 / 2.81 / 5.42 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Lanus — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LanusFair line (devig) — Lanus
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Lanus
LDDLWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.75 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 17% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 17% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v Argentinos Jrs | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Dep. Riestra | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-24 | H v Central Cordoba | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-21 | A v Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-13 | H v Banfield | 1-0 | W |
San Lorenzo
DLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 17% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 17% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v River Plate | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Independiente | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-25 | A v Platense | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Newells Old Boys | 0-0 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | San Lorenzo v Lanus | 2-3 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
| 2025-10-05 | Lanus v San Lorenzo | 2-1 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
| 2025-03-28 | San Lorenzo v Lanus | 1-1 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
| 2024-05-20 | San Lorenzo v Lanus | 1-1 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
| 2024-01-27 | San Lorenzo v Lanus | 0-2 | Argentina Copa De La Liga Profesional |
| 2023-08-20 | Lanus v San Lorenzo | 0-1 | Argentina Copa De La Liga Profesional |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Argentina fixtures
Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos JuniorsBelgrano de Cordoba v Rosario CentralDefensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del PlataGimnasia Mendoza v Central CórdobaRacing Club v Gimnasia La PlataVelez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba
Frequently asked questions
When do Lanus play San Lorenzo?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Lanus v San Lorenzo?
The statistical model prices Lanus at 42%, the draw at 32% and San Lorenzo at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Lanus v San Lorenzo?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.05 / 2.96 / 5.71 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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