York City v Crawley Town PREDICTION
EFL Mon 3 Aug, 19:30 UK · in 20d1X2 · York CityEfficiently priced recent
Market
1.77
price
56.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.77
fair price
56.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 47%
Model divergence -10 pts
Edge vs fair 0%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
York City
47%
Draw
28%
Crawley Town
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 56% / 24% / 19%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices York City 47% against the market’s fair 56% — a -10 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): York City 31% · Crawley Town 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do York City play Crawley Town?
Kick-off is Mon 3 Aug, 19:30 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for York City v Crawley Town?
The statistical model prices York City at 47%, the draw at 28% and Crawley Town at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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