York City v Crawley Town
EFL1X2 · York CityEfficiently priced recent
Market
1.77
price
56.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.77
fair price
56.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 47%
Model divergence -10 pts
Edge vs fair 0%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
York City
47%
Draw
28%
Crawley Town
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 56% / 24% / 19%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices York City 47% against the market’s fair 56% — a -10 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): York City 31% · Crawley Town 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York City | 46.5% | 1.77 | 1.77 | 0% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 4.15 | 4.00 | -3.6% |
| Crawley Town | 25.2% | 5.15 | 5.00 | -3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | York City | Draw | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.62 | 3.85 | 4.65 |
| Grosvenor | 1.77 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.77 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.77 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| Casumo | 1.77 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Bet Victor | 1.61 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.61 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.65 / 3.87 / 4.80 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · York City — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — York CityFair line (devig) — York City
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
York City
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Crawley Town
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do York City play Crawley Town?
Kick-off is Mon 3 Aug, 19:30 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for York City v Crawley Town?
The statistical model prices York City at 47%, the draw at 28% and Crawley Town at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for York City v Crawley Town?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.77 / 4.15 / 5.15 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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