Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale
EFL1X2 · Wolverhampton WanderersModel behind market recent
Market
1.35
price
74.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.43
fair price
69.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 70%model 45%
Model divergence -24.7 pts
Edge vs fair -5.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Wolverhampton Wanderers
45%
Draw
29%
Port Vale
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 70% / 18% / 12%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Wolverhampton Wanderers 45% against the market’s fair 70% — a -24.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Wolverhampton Wanderers 29% · Port Vale 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 45.0% | 1.43 | 1.35 | -5.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 5.43 | 5.40 | -0.6% |
| Port Vale | 26.1% | 8.40 | 8.50 | +1.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.55 · Under: 2.32 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Draw | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.33 | 5.10 | 7.10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.32 | 5.40 | 6.10 |
| Casumo | 1.32 | 5.40 | 6.10 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.32 | 5.40 | 6.10 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.34 | 5.25 | 7.50 |
| 888sport | 1.33 | 4.75 | 8.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.32 | 5.40 | 6.10 |
| BoyleSports | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.34 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.33 / 5.04 / 7.81 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Wolverhampton Wanderers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Wolverhampton WanderersFair line (devig) — Wolverhampton Wanderers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
DDLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Burnley FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Fulham FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Sunderland AFC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-25 | H v Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0-1 | L |
Port Vale
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Wolverhampton Wanderers play Port Vale?
Kick-off is Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale?
The statistical model prices Wolverhampton Wanderers at 45%, the draw at 29% and Port Vale at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.43 / 5.43 / 8.40 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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