Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Port Vale — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming11 Results held
Model Strength
60.5
Developing
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
96.2%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
21st
of 24 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
11
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
BetfairForm
last 6LDWWLW
10 pts from 6
A
York
0–2
-0.9
A
Gillingham
1–1
+0.1
H
Chesterfield
1–0
+1.2
H
Grimsby
1–0
+1.1
A
Walsall
0–2
-0.8
H
Exeter City
1–0
+1.0
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (11 matches)
Model expected (11 priced)
Ahead
Behind
-1.1 points against the model's expectation over the 11 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals conceded
1.09
#6 of 24
Clean sheets
4
#6 of 24
Weaknesses
Points over model expectation
-1.1
#19 of 24
Goals scored
0.55
#24 of 24
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
0.55
#24 of 24
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1.09
#6 of 24
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
4
#6 of 24
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed60%
Scored before half time
of 5 goals
0%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 5 goals
20%
From the penalty spot
of 5 goals
22%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 9 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 11 stored fixtures
(14 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
L2No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Home ground: Vale Park gazetteer
Recorded form
LLDWWW
last 12: 0.75 scored / 1 conceded per game · Over 2.5 8% · BTTS 25% · clean sheets 42% (20 results held)
A York 0-2 L · A York City 0-2 L · A Gillingham 1-1 D · H Chesterfield 1-0 W · H Grimsby 1-0 W
Upcoming fixtures
-
Sat 31 Oct12:30in 4dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | K. Figueroa | from Liverpool | Loan | 2026-08-31 |
| IN | M. Craig | from Tottenham | Free agent | 2026-06-30 |
| OUT | Elijah Xavier Campbell | to Everton | Return from loan | 2026-06-29 |
| OUT | J. Gauci | to Aston Villa | Return from loan | 2026-05-30 |
| OUT | M. Sherif | to Everton | Return from loan | 2026-05-30 |
| IN | Elijah Xavier Campbell | from Everton | Loan | 2026-01-31 |
| IN | M. Sherif | from Everton | Loan | 2026-01-31 |
| IN | J. Gauci | from Aston Villa | Loan | 2025-08-10 |
| IN | R. Richards | from Aston Villa | Free agent | 2025-06-30 |
| OUT | J. Weir | to Brighton | 2024-07-01 |
Team data: fresh · collected 4 min ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Port Vale play next?
Port Vale's next fixture in the snapshot is Port Vale v Rochdale on Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 UK time (League 2).