Cambridge United v Barnet
EFL1X2 · Cambridge UnitedModel behind market recent
Market
1.90
price
52.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.98
fair price
50.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 51%model 47%
Model divergence -4 pts
Edge vs fair -4.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Cambridge United
47%
Draw
28%
Barnet
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 51% / 27% / 22%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Cambridge United 47% against the market’s fair 51% — a -4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Cambridge United 31% · Barnet 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United | 46.5% | 1.98 | 1.90 | -4.1% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.68 | 3.60 | -2.1% |
| Barnet | 25.2% | 4.48 | 4.20 | -6.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.95 · Under: 1.77 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Cambridge United | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.86 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.75 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
| Grosvenor | 1.81 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.81 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.81 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| Casumo | 1.81 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| 888sport | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.85 / 3.44 / 4.19 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Cambridge United — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Cambridge UnitedFair line (devig) — Cambridge United
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Cambridge United
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Cambridge City | 3-1 | W |
Barnet
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Hemel Hempstead Town | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
Tranmere Rovers v RochdaleYork City v Crawley TownBristol City v WalsallWolverhampton Wanderers v Port ValeWycombe Wanderers v StevenageMiddlesbrough v Wrexham AFC
Frequently asked questions
When do Cambridge United play Barnet?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 13:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Cambridge United v Barnet?
The statistical model prices Cambridge United at 47%, the draw at 28% and Barnet at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Cambridge United v Barnet?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.98 / 3.68 / 4.48 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.