Wycombe Wanderers v Stevenage
EFL1X2 · Wycombe WanderersModel behind market recent
Market
2.20
price
45.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.30
fair price
43.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 43%model 45%
Model divergence +1.6 pts
Edge vs fair -4.5%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Wycombe Wanderers
45%
Draw
29%
Stevenage
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 43% / 28% / 29%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Wycombe Wanderers 45% against the market’s fair 43% — a +1.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Wycombe Wanderers 30% · Stevenage 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe Wanderers | 45.0% | 2.30 | 2.20 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.62 | 3.40 | -6.2% |
| Stevenage | 26.1% | 3.45 | 3.40 | -1.4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Wycombe Wanderers | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Sky Bet | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 2.98 | 3.40 |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| BoyleSports | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.16 / 3.40 / 3.24 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Wycombe Wanderers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Wycombe WanderersFair line (devig) — Wycombe Wanderers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Wycombe Wanderers
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Stevenage
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Wycombe Wanderers play Stevenage?
Kick-off is Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Wycombe Wanderers v Stevenage?
The statistical model prices Wycombe Wanderers at 45%, the draw at 29% and Stevenage at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Wycombe Wanderers v Stevenage?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.30 / 3.62 / 3.45 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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