Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC
EFL1X2 · MiddlesbroughPricing inefficiency recent
Market
1.97
price
50.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.90
fair price
52.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 53%model 45%
Model divergence -7.7 pts
Edge vs fair +3.8%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Middlesbrough
45%
Draw
29%
Wrexham AFC
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 53% / 25% / 23%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Middlesbrough 45% against the market’s fair 53% — a -7.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Middlesbrough 29% · Wrexham AFC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 45.0% | 1.90 | 1.97 | +3.8% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.05 | 3.80 | -6.1% |
| Wrexham AFC | 26.1% | 4.44 | 4.33 | -2.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.76 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Middlesbrough | Draw | Wrexham AFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.97 | 3.45 | 3.20 |
| Grosvenor | 1.96 | 3.45 | 3.20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.97 | 3.45 | 3.20 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Casumo | 1.96 | 3.45 | 3.20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.83 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.77 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Paddy Power | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.77 / 3.77 / 4.14 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Middlesbrough — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MiddlesbroughFair line (devig) — Middlesbrough
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Middlesbrough
LLLDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.67 / 2.08
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-21 | A v Liverpool | 0-3 | L |
| 2017-05-13 | H v Southampton | 1-2 | L |
| 2017-05-08 | A v Chelsea | 0-3 | L |
| 2017-04-30 | H v Man City | 2-2 | D |
| 2017-04-26 | H v Sunderland | 1-0 | W |
Wrexham AFC
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Wisla Krakow | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Middlesbrough play Wrexham AFC?
Kick-off is Fri 7 Aug, 20:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC?
The statistical model prices Middlesbrough at 45%, the draw at 29% and Wrexham AFC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.90 / 4.05 / 4.44 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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