Bristol City v Walsall
EFL1X2 · Bristol CityModel behind market recent
Market
1.40
price
71.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.54
fair price
64.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 65%model 45%
Model divergence -19.9 pts
Edge vs fair -9.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Bristol City
45%
Draw
29%
Walsall
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 65% / 20% / 15%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Bristol City 45% against the market’s fair 65% — a -19.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Bristol City 29% · Walsall 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 45.0% | 1.54 | 1.40 | -9.1% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.90 | 5.40 | +10.2% |
| Walsall | 26.1% | 6.80 | 8.20 | +20.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.32 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Bristol City | Draw | Walsall |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.27 | 5.40 | 7.50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.27 | 5.40 | 7.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.27 | 5.40 | 7.50 |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.65 | 6.40 |
| Casumo | 1.27 | 5.40 | 7.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.36 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.43 / 4.55 / 6.29 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Bristol City — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Bristol CityFair line (devig) — Bristol City
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Bristol City
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Walsall
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Leamington | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Bristol City play Walsall?
Kick-off is Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Bristol City v Walsall?
The statistical model prices Bristol City at 45%, the draw at 29% and Walsall at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Bristol City v Walsall?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.54 / 4.90 / 6.80 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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