Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale
EFL1X2 · Tranmere RoversModel behind market recent
Market
2.88
price
34.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.05
fair price
32.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 33%model 47%
Model divergence +13.7 pts
Edge vs fair -5.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Tranmere Rovers
47%
Draw
28%
Rochdale
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 33% / 26% / 41%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Tranmere Rovers 47% against the market’s fair 33% — a +13.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Tranmere Rovers 31% · Rochdale 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere Rovers | 46.5% | 3.05 | 2.88 | -5.5% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.83 | 3.60 | -6% |
| Rochdale | 25.2% | 2.43 | 2.80 | +15.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.77 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Tranmere Rovers | Draw | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 1.46 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Sky Bet | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| BoyleSports | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Grosvenor | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Casumo | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| 888sport | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.86 / 3.59 / 2.28 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Tranmere Rovers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Tranmere RoversFair line (devig) — Tranmere Rovers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Tranmere Rovers
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Rochdale
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Tranmere Rovers play Rochdale?
Kick-off is Sat 1 Aug, 15:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale?
The statistical model prices Tranmere Rovers at 47%, the draw at 28% and Rochdale at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.05 / 3.83 / 2.43 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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