Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities

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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.

12 fixtures of 12 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome is ever certain.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Expected total goals	Over / Under 2.5 (derived)	Market price O/U
Crawley Town v Cheltenham Town L2	Sat 12 Sept, 12:30	members	members	1.70 / 2.14 @ 2.5
Grimsby Town v Bristol Rovers L2	Sat 12 Sept, 12:30	members	members	1.80 / 2.08 @ 2.5
Shrewsbury Town v Northampton Town L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	2.18 / 1.70 @ 2.5
Newport County v Fleetwood Town L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.88 / 1.94 @ 2.5
Colchester United v Crewe Alexandra L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.88 / 1.95 @ 2.5
Barnet v Accrington Stanley L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.66 / 2.36 @ 2.5
Oldham Athletic v Chesterfield FC L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.97 / 1.93 @ 2.5
York City v Swindon Town L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.66 / 2.30 @ 2.5
Walsall v Rochdale L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.80 / 2.14 @ 2.5
Port Vale v Exeter City L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	2.00 / 1.87 @ 2.5
Gillingham v Tranmere Rovers L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	2.10 / 1.80 @ 2.5
Rotherham United v Salford City L2	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.82 / 2.10 @ 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?

A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.

How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?

From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.