Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities

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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.

12 fixtures of 12 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome is ever certain.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Expected total goals	Over / Under 2.5 (derived)	Market price O/U
Notts County v Bradford City L1	Sat 12 Sept, 12:30	members	members	2.16 / 1.77 @ 2.5
Leyton Orient v Wycombe Wanderers L1	Sat 12 Sept, 12:30	members	members	1.85 / 2.10 @ 2.5
Sheffield Wednesday v Wigan Athletic L1	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.67 / 2.34 @ 2.5
Stockport County FC v Leicester City L1	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.67 / 2.20 @ 2.5
Milton Keynes Dons v Peterborough United L1	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	—
Oxford United v Burton Albion L1	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.90 / 1.97 @ 2.5
Mansfield Town v Huddersfield Town L1	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.76 / 2.14 @ 2.5
Plymouth Argyle v Barnsley L1	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.54 / 2.40 @ 2.5
Blackpool v Bromley FC L1	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.78 / 2.14 @ 2.5
Wimbledon v Doncaster Rovers L1	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	1.99 / 1.89 @ 2.5
Cambridge United v Reading L1	Sat 12 Sept, 15:00	members	members	2.02 / 1.95 @ 2.5
Wimbledon v Milton Keynes Dons L1	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—

Frequently asked questions

What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?

A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.

How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?

From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 13 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.