Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities

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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.

11 fixtures of 11 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome is ever certain.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Expected total goals	Over / Under 2.5 (derived)	Market price O/U
Peterborough United v Barnsley EFL	Tue 15 Sept, 19:45	members	members	1.96 / 1.91 @ 2.5
West Ham United v Fulham EFL	Tue 15 Sept, 19:45	members	members	1.67 / 2.18 @ 2.5
Reading v Brentford EFL	Tue 15 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur EFL	Tue 15 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Ipswich Town v Arsenal EFL	Tue 15 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.65 / 2.33 @ 2.5
Ipswich v Arsenal LC	Tue 15 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Fleetwood Town v Sheffield United EFL	Wed 16 Sept, 19:45	members	members	1.66 / 2.17 @ 2.5
Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers EFL	Wed 16 Sept, 19:45	members	members	1.74 / 2.04 @ 2.5
Manchester United v Brighton and Hove Albion EFL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Coventry City v Aston Villa EFL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.67 / 2.23 @ 2.5
Manchester City v Norwich City EFL	Thu 17 Sept, 19:30	members	members	—

Frequently asked questions

What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?

A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.

How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?

From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.